Abstract—Uncertainties in renewable energy resources are the main challenges in maintaining a high quality of supply in stand-alone Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems (HRES). Conventionally, a battery bank is used as an auxiliary source to reduce the vulnerability of HRES to the climate changes and maintain the desired quality of supply. Considering the uncertainties at the design stage would ensure appropriate sizing of the HRESs in order to improve their reliability under different operating conditions. This paper proposes a method in optimal sizing of a stand-alone wind turbine/PV/battery system considering uncertainties in renewable energy resources. The wind speed and solar irradiance variations are modelled by using time series analysis method. Performance of the design candidates is evaluated by using the Monte-Carlo simulation method. The analysis presented is supported by a case study for a typical household in the UK.
Index Terms—Stand-alone hybrid system, reliability, uncertainties, time-series analysis, monte-carlo simulation.
The authors are with Faculty of Engineering and Environment, Northumbria University, NE1 8ST, UK. (e-mail:azadeh.kamjoo@northumbria.ac.uk, alireza.maheri@northumbria.ac.uk,ghanim.putrus@northumbria.ac.uk).
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Cite: A. Kamjoo, A. Maheri, and G. Putrus, "Wind Speed and Solar Irradiance Variation Simulation Using ARMA Models in Design of Hybrid Wind-PV-Battery System," Journal of Clean Energy Technologies vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 14-17, 2013.
