Abstract—In this paper, a robust Pair Copula-Point Estimation Method is proposed to probabilistically analyse the impact of wind power complex dependencies and uncertainties in both wind power and loads towards a power system’s small signal stability. The proposed approach is adopted to probabilistically analyse the small signal stability of the IEEE 39-bus test system at three different wind power penetration levels concurrently considering light and heavy loading conditions. Increasing wind power penetration, uncertainties in both wind power and loads and the complex dependencies between wind power sources are probabilistically established to negatively impact the system’s small signal stability. The worst case is observed when the level of wind power penetration is highest alongside consideration of the uncertainties arising from both wind power and the loads, the complex dependence existing between the wind power sources and at heavy loading. Thus, increasing penetration of uncertain and strongly dependent wind power sources and the uncertainty existing in power system loads should be intensively studied as they present risks towards a power system’s small signal stability.
Index Terms—Dependence, probabilistic small signal stability analysis (PSSSA), pair copula, uncertainty.
P. Kanyingi is with the Department of Electrical Engineering at Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China (e-mail: pkkanyingi@gmail.com).
Keyou Wang, Guojie Li, and Wei Wu are with the Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion, Ministry of Education, Department of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China (e-mail: wangkeyou@sjtu.edu.cn, liguojie@sjtu.edu.cn, wuweiceee@gmail.com).
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Cite:P. Kanyingi, Keyou Wang, Guojie Li, and Wei Wu, "A Robust Pair Copula-Point Estimation Method for Probabilistic Small Signal Stability Analysis with Large Scale Integration of Wind Power," Journal of Clean Energy Technologies vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 85-94, 2017.
